2017 NBA Las Vegas Summer League Discussion
Some people don’t think Summer League is important and that it shouldn’t be used to make predictions on the upcoming season. In this article, I will be analyzing Summer League results to actual season results to see if Summer League actually does matter. Also, I will be providing insight on my predictions for the Lakers next season and expectations for Lonzo. This Summer League was probably the most entertaining Summer League of all time and ended in spectacular fashion as the Los Angeles Lakers prevailed over the Portland Trail Blazers 110-98 without 2nd overall pick Lonzo Ball. Kyle Kuzma was named finals MVP after his 30 point performance, and Lonzo Ball was named Summer League MVP. Lakers fans certainly have something to be excited about with Ball and Kuzma’s Summer League accomplishments. We will now find out exactly how much Summer League matters.
Table 1 (Important information)
Year-2013
Winner- Golden State Warriors
MVP- Jonas Valanciunas
Years it took to win championship after Summer League- 2
Years it took for player to win MVP after Summer League- NEVER
Year- 2014
Winner- Sacramento Kings
MVP- Glen Rice Jr
Years it took to win championship after Summer League- NEVER
Years it took for player to win MVP after Summer League-NEVER
Year- 2015
Team- San Antonio Spurs
MVP- Kyle Anderson
Years it took to win Championship after Summer League- NEVER
Years it took player to win MVP after Summer League- NEVER
Year- 2016
Team- Chicago Bulls
MVP- Tyus Jones
Years it took to win championship after Summer League- NEVER
Years it took for player to win MVP after Summer League- NEVER
Let’s review the facts of this table. First of all, as you can see, no Summer League MVP in the last four years has won the NBA MVP yet. Second, with the exception of Golden State, no Summer League winner in the last four years has won the NBA title yet. Lastly, no Summer League MVP winner in the last four years has been an all-star yet. I would have liked to have gone further back to see if expand these statements, however I couldn’t access the information.
Table 2 (Similar stat lines)
The purpose of this table is to show the closest stat line to this year’s Summer League MVP Lonzo Ball (16.3 PPG, 9.3 APG, and 7.7 RPG in 5 games) over the past four NBA Summer Leagues. This will give us a better perspective of how Summer League numbers translate to NBA numbers
Player- Cody Zeller
Team-Charlotte
Year- 2013
PPG- 16.3
APG- 1.5
RPG- 9.3
NBA Carrer- NBA All- Rookie 2nd team 2014
Player- Russ Smith
Team- New Orleans
Year- 2014
PPG- 16.0
APG- 6.4
RPG- 5.0
NBA Carrer-No achievements yet
Player-Bryce Cotton
Team- Utah
Year- 2015
PPG- 16.8
APG- 4.0
RPG- 4.0
NBA Carrer- NBA D-League All Star 2015
Player- Buddy Hield
Team- New Orleans
Year- 2016
PPG- 16.8
APG- 3.8
RPG- 5.4
NBA Carrer- NBA All Rookie 1st team 2017
Lonzo Ball’s performance this Summer League was incredibly unique especially for a Point Guard. He was the first player to get 30 or more points while dishing 10 or more assists and the first player in Summer League history to get two triple doubles. Lastly, Lonzo shattered the average Summer League assists record by averaging 9.3 assists per game. The table above shows the closest stat line to Lonzo in each of the past four years of Summer League. As you can see, none of these players recorded over 7 assists per game and the closest player to Lonzo out of these players was a center.
Table 3 (Buddy Hield Comparison)
Out of the above players, Buddy Hield had the closest stat line to Lonzo from a positional standpoint. The following table will compare Lonzo’s college stats and achievements to Buddy’s.
Player-Ball
College- UCLA
Term- (1 year)
PPG- 14.6
APG- 7.6
RPG- 6.0
Team Result- Eliminated Sweet 16 (2017)
Achievements-
First Team All Pac 12 (2017)
Pac 12 Freshman of the year (2017)
First Team All American (2017)
Player- Hield
College-Oklahoma (4 years)
PPG- 17.4
APG- 1.9
RPG- 5.0
Team Result-
Eliminated Final 4 (2016)
Eliminated Sweet 16 (2015)
Eliminated Round of 64 (2014)
Eliminated Round of 64 (2013)
Achievements-
Naismith Player of the year (2016)
John R. Wooden Award (2016)
First Team All American (2016)
Although Hield played 3 more seasons in college than Ball, the stat lines are relatively similar. This is a reasonable comparison for Lonzo based strictly on summer league stats and numbers, however I personally believe Lonzo will win Rookie of the year next season and average somewhere in the area of 15-18 PPG, 7-11 APG, and 5-12 RPG next season. Hield’s rookie average was 10.6 PPG, 1.5 APG, and 3.3 RPG. The reason why I believe Lonzo will produce more numbers is because the Lakers have the upmost confidence in his abilities. He will start all 82 games (without injury knock on wood) and play more minutes than Hield’s 23. Lonzo will also be on a better team to start than Hield was and will absolutely not be traded in his first season like Hield. That trade could be a significant reason why Hield’s numbers were the way they were which caused him not to be in contention for Rookie of the Year. I expect a breakout year next year from him.
Let’s talk about some big picture topics for a second. This article is not here to take away or downplay the Lakers accomplishments. Some of their players could be very good in the future and this Summer League was a treat to watch. The Lakers accomplished more than just a championship win. Due to the excitement of the Summer League, I think it is fair to say that during the regular season, if the Lakers field a competitive team, they can potentially be close to full capacity at Staples Center every home game. That means this Championship will generate Lakers money in ticket sales and basketball related revenue (ex. Jerseys, hats, food, ect...). When fans walk in the arena, they will almost certainly buy food and possibly buy a souvenir. The Lakers on average last year had 18,949 fans coming to home games out of a possible 18,118 capacity. These great numbers were for essentially a last place team. Now that they can actually compete, those numbers will go up. This also causes the Lakers to be a new prime free agent destination. The 2018 free agent class could feature Lebron James and Paul George and the Lakers are working to get enough money to maybe sign both of them. If Lonzo does win rookie of the year, pencil in at least one of the prized free agents heading to LA.
The Lakers situation as a whole reminds me of the previous season of Toronto Maple Leafs hockey. The Leafs were taken over by a couple of former players and hockey experts in the front office in 2015. They then finished the 2015-16 NHL season in last place, but won the draft lottery to select Auston Matthews (a player who makes everyone better). The Leafs also have other rookie on the team to help contribute to an 8th seed playoff berth and a competitive series against the #1 seed Washington Capitals in which they lost in 6 games. This offseason they signed a prized free agent who wanted to play with the young guns (Patrick Marleau). Matthews ended up winning Rookie of the year. Back to the Lakers. I can see this situation playing out almost exactly in Los Angeles. The Lakers get taken over by Magic and Pelinka. They then finish in 2nd to last place. They get to keep their pick and select Lonzo. He and the other young Lakers go out this season and make a statement, earning respect each night and fighting for a playoff spot. They make the 8 seed and lose to Golden State or San Antonio, but in a more competitive series than people would think. Lonzo wins rookie of the year and attracts free agents. This makes the Lakers a more competitive team the following year with higher expectations (just like the Leafs).
Back to the essential question, does Summer League really matter? In conclusion, some senses it does, such as creating excitement and showcasing the future. In some senses it doesn’t, such as the stat lines. The Summer League is essentially just something to generate ratings for ESPN. We will see how the Lakers season goes next year. It should be fun. More to come..